Growth, Demographics, Slavery, and Voting in U.S. Gubernatorial Elections, 1840-1860

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:35:20 +0000

Growth, Demographics, Slavery, and Voting in U.S. Gubernatorial Elections, 1840-1860 Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:35

By: Alex Jensen, Madeline Mader, Srinivas “Chinnu” Parinandi, Anand Edward Sokhey, Michael Byrd

Abstract:

While scholars have given extensive study to the role of slavery as part of America’s political development, less attention has been given to how the institution affected subnational elections in the nineteenth century. More generally, little systematic work has been done on gubernatorial voting patterns in the antebellum period, and particularly on how the slavery positions of the parties mattered relative to other factors influencing gubernatorial vote share. In this paper we examine gubernatorial voting patterns in the antebellum period of 1840-1860, modeling vote shares for each election. We find that pro-slavery views matter second only to incumbency in predicting gubernatorial vote share. Results give quantitative heft to the degree to which slavery was a central organizing issue in nineteenth century political life, show how slavery was not only an issue that dominated federal but also state politics, and suggest that gubernatorial candidates sought labels communicating their slavery bonafides as a path to electoral success.

Off

Traditional

White

Federal Slavery Legislation and Voting in U.S. Gubernatorial Elections, 1840–1860

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:24:46 +0000

Federal Slavery Legislation and Voting in U.S. Gubernatorial Elections, 1840–1860 Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:24

Federal Slavery Legislation and Voting in U.S. Gubernatorial Elections, 1840–1860

By: Alexander Jensen, Madeline Mader, Srinivas C. Parinandi, Anand Sokhey, Michael Byrd

Abstract:

The demise of the Whig Party in the 1850s has long been a subject of great attention among scholars and the general public. However, this historical development has received less attention from the vantage point of quantitative empirical analysis. Using state-level gubernatorial electoral returns from 1840 to 1860, we assess how major events like the passage of the Fugitive Slave Act/Compromise of 1850, the passage of the Kansas–Nebraska Act, and the rise of the Know Nothing Party influenced the transformation of America’s party system in the lead up to the Civil War. We find evidence linking the passage of the Kansas–Nebraska Act to a drop in support for Northern Whigs, Free Soilers, and (more suggestively) Northern Democrats. The results are consistent with a narrative of the Kansas–Nebraska Act unleashing fears among Free Soilers, ultimately leading to a coalescing around the new Republican Party.

Off

Traditional

White